Human-induced climate change has significantly increased the likelihood of recent extreme heat events in the US southwest, Mexico, and Central America, making such events around 35 times more probable, according to scientists. The World Weather Attribution (WWA) group conducted a study on the excessive heat experienced between May and early June, focusing on the US southwest, including states like California, Nevada, and Arizona, where the heatwave was particularly intense. During this period, Mexico also experienced extreme temperatures, which tragically resulted in numerous fatalities.
Attribution studies, like the one conducted by WWA, require time to complete, meaning that it is currently too early to definitively determine the extent to which climate change is contributing to the ongoing heatwave affecting the central US, the northeast, and Canada. However, the findings of the WWA’s latest report indicate that such heatwaves are now four times more likely than they were in the year 2000, largely driven by emissions that contribute to global warming.
Experts agree that many extreme weather events, including heatwaves, are becoming more frequent and severe as a direct result of climate change. “The results of our study should be taken as another warning that our climate is heating to dangerous levels,” emphasized Izidine Pinto, a researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. The increasing frequency and intensity of potentially deadly and record-breaking temperatures in the US, Mexico, and Central America underscore the urgent need for action.
“As long as humans continue to emit fossil fuels into the atmosphere, the heat will only get worse, resulting in more deaths among vulnerable populations and increasing the cost of living,” warned Pinto. The WWA study encompassed a broad region, including the US southwest and Mexico, as well as Central American countries like Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador, and Honduras, all of which experienced dangerously high temperatures.
The scientists revealed that the hottest five-day period across this region in June was approximately 1.4°C warmer due to climate change. Karina Izquierdo, an Urban Advisor for the Latin American and Caribbean region at the Red Cross Climate Centre, highlighted the grave implications of even slight increases in temperature: “Every fraction of a degree of warming exposes more people to dangerous heat.” This additional 1.4°C of heat caused by climate change could mean the difference between life and death for many individuals during May and June.
Mexican authorities have linked the heatwave to the deaths of dozens of people and have also attributed the deaths of howler monkeys in the southern state of Tabasco to the extreme temperatures. The scientists stressed the particular danger posed by high night-time temperatures, which prevent the body from resting and recovering adequately, thereby posing a severe health threat.
The WWA group specializes in rapid-attribution studies of weather events worldwide, aiming to understand the role of climate change in exacerbating these events. Their methodology involves examining specific events and comparing them against models of what would likely have occurred in a world not affected by human-induced global warming. By doing so, they can isolate the impact of climate change on the severity of these weather phenomena.
The findings from the WWA study serve as a stark reminder of the pressing reality of climate change. The increase in extreme heat events is not an isolated occurrence but part of a broader pattern of escalating climate impacts. This pattern is characterized by more frequent and intense heatwaves, storms, floods, and other extreme weather events, all of which have devastating consequences for human health, ecosystems, and economies.
The current heatwave, stretching from the center of the US through the northeast and into Canada, is a testament to the far-reaching impacts of climate change. While the full extent of climate change’s contribution to this particular event is still being studied, the established link between human activities and increased extreme heat is undeniable. As the planet continues to warm, these events are expected to become even more common and severe, highlighting the urgent need for comprehensive climate action.
In conclusion, human-induced climate change has made recent extreme heat events in the US southwest, Mexico, and Central America around 35 times more likely. This increased likelihood is driven by emissions that warm the planet, making such heatwaves four times more probable now than in 2000. The results of the WWA study underscore the urgent need for action to mitigate the impacts of climate change, as extreme weather events become more frequent and intense. The findings also highlight the severe health risks posed by high temperatures, particularly at night, and the critical importance of reducing emissions to prevent further warming and protect vulnerable populations.
